Obama's Game on Africa's Largest Turf

Having malaria and surviving an African plane crash would make a large number of Africans experts on the Sudan. Nicholas Kristof believes he is one such expert. In a recent column, he seemed unimpressed, if not unhappy, with Obama’s policy to prevent a third civil war in Sudan. Actually, Kristof has decided it’s already a “failure” since Obama’s administration is full of carrots mongers. I beg to differ with Mr. Kristof on that deterministic language. Only time can prove the failure or success of US policy in Sudan, formulated and carried by State Department officials and consultants; the experts on the Sudan.

I, however, agree with Kristof on one point with two mutually inclusive components. First, Bush administration did indeed play a big role in facilitating the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) between the Government of the Sudan and SPLM/A, the warring parties in Sudan’s past two civil wars. Second, international players such as the UN, AU, Egypt, and even Norway, mustn‘t be ignored. On the contrary, they must be engaged, especially given their previous roles during the CPA negotiations preceding 2005.

In 2010, Kristof needs to cut Obama some slack. The situation in the Sudan is very different than what it was in 2005. Darfur is no longer a pressing case of genocide. Bashir has been indicted by the ICC on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity. The South has an autonomous status. Then why would applying a “sticks” policy, as Bush did, make any sense? Comparing Bush’s punitive strategy to Obama’s “unengaged” policy is comparing apples to “carrots.”

I believe Kristof would agree with me that the Sudanese regime is repressive and Bashir is a cunning and manipulative president. But believing that he will succumb to additional pressure is unfair to the Sudanese people, the real victims of the economic sanctions levied by the US. What if additional pressure ignites explosive reaction against the very people Kristof and I want to protect?

President Obama and his administration, as well as interested international players, are very cautious in their policies towards Bashir. It is 100 days before the Southerners will vote on their political future. My speculation is that after January 9^th, 2011 the world will witness a game of musical chairs on Sudan where the quickest and the most strategic player wins. I am no expert on Sudan, but I hope the Sudanese people win, and not Bashir.

JE