Qaddafi choosing Tunisia over Zimbabwe?

When I clicked the link titled "Gadhafi making plans for leaving Libya," I expected the final destination to be Zimbabwe given the warm relationship Qaddafi maintains with Mugabe who dubs France, Italy and other Western countries "vampires" and has recently called the NATO a "terrorist group."

It seemed as an expected outcome. First, Zimbabwean sources reported on several occasions that Zimbabwean soldiers were serving as mercenaries in Libya (I guess that means it has been with Mugabe's approval). Second, Zimbabwe is a safe refuge to the former Ethiopian officer of the Dergue, Mengistu Haile Mariam and is purported to harbor the Hutu extremist Major Protais Mpiranya. So far Mugabe refused to extradite either despite the international pressure it is subjected to. Third, there were leaks at the onset of the Libyan revolution that Qaddafi had already decided to flee to Zimbabwe.

But the subtitle of NBC's news piece declared Tunisia as Qaddafi's destination "within days" according to "U.S. officials ... citing intelligence reports."

As irrational and unpredictable as Qaddafi can be, recent developments in Libya and Tunisia will equate such a decision to pitiful surrender. Dr. Juan Cole dismissed the viability of such an action outlining the following reasons:

1. While Qaddafi might be willing to flee Tripoli, I’m not sure he has it in his cantankerous old soul to go into exile abroad.

2. Tunisia would not want him. He opposed the Tunisian revolution and had had members of the Ben Ali government on retainer. When I was in Tunisia this summer I found that most Tunisians to whom I spoke were afraid of Qaddafi and tended to support the Transitional National Council in Benghazi, even if some opposed NATO intervention. There would be a danger of him intriguing with tribal supporters in Libya from Tunisia, which would be a huge headache for the latter.

3. The Transitional National Council would not accept Qaddafi’s presence right next door, from which he could do mischief, nor his residence on the soil of a friendly neighbor.

4. Tunisia has joined the International Criminal Court. Since the ICC has indicted Qaddafi for war crimes, as a signatory Tunisia would be constrained to turn him over to the Hague for trial.

If I were to bet on Qaddafi’s safe haven, I wouldn’t risk my moolah on Zimbabwe. We must not forget that leaving Libya by sea or air can and will be easily detected. But it is not as easy a task with an escape through land routes, especially in the Sahara.

The next possible option is Algeria. Friendly, accessible by land routes, and, although a signatory of the Rome Statute since 2000, it did not ratify it.
Regardless of Qaddafi's destination and legitimacy of the sources that U.S. intelligence consulted, NBC's report, if it reaches his clique and the residents of Tripoli, can have detrimental results. Think of it as an old fashioned propaganda tactic. Either, the rats of Qaddafi's regime will start to escape the madman's ship realizing that they are in a rat race, or the residents of the capital will muster courage to take to the streets and support the rebels. Whichever the scenario, I pray Qaddafi's end is nigh.

JE